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The Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.57%, 1.82% and 1.78%, respectively, May 17 as investors fretted about the ongoing problems at the White House. Shareholders of Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) weren’t spared from the carnage as AMZN stock lost 2.3% on the day.
Not to worry, Amazon fanatics. AMZN stock will shake this off and move past $1,000 soon enough.
With all the positive things going on at the Seattle company, $2,000 could be just around the corner regardless of what former FBI Director Robert Mueller finds.
Buy-and-Hold Stocks Do Exist
Investors can argue all they want buy-and-hold investing is a thing of the past, but given the lack of volatility in the markets in recent years, a reversion to the mean (a return to significant market volatility) suggests investors ought to have a strategy that allows them to sleep at night.
As Warren Buffett believes, buying great companies at fair prices and owning them for a long time is the way to profit from the markets.
“The money is made in investments by investing and by owning good companies for long periods of time,” Buffett said in a May 2016 CNBC interview. “If they buy good companies, buy them over time, they’re going to do fine 10, 20, 30 years from now.”
Is Amazon a Good Company?
Does Donald Trump like Tweeting? Are the New England Patriots a solid football team? Is Freddie Mercury a great singer? Yes, yes and hell, yes!
People use the world brilliant far too often to describe someone who’s bright and talented; sometimes it’s deserving, but more often than not it’s an over-the-top platitude exaggerating the truth.
Jeff Bezos would never admit this, but he most definitely is brilliant with a capital B. Except for Elon Musk at Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), I don’t believe there is any CEO in recent business history who has faced as many doubters during his or her early tenure than Bezos himself.
“The question that needs to be asked,” Mark Anderson, publisher of the The Strategic News Service, remarked for a July 2005 article in the New York Times, “is how many years of declining stock performance will a board tolerate before they finally say, ‘Listen, we need to make a change.’ ”
Since that article, AMZN stock is up 2,620% through May 17. Apparently, the board knew something Anderson didn’t. If you’re reading this article and you were serving on the board in July 2005, give yourself a pat on the back. Your patience and restraint made shareholders millions in the years that followed.
“Jeff Bezos is justifiably considered a brilliant person,” Investment banker Gary Lutin is said to have stated for a 2001 article in the Puget Sound Business Journal. “But his brilliance has been exhibited so far in the area of stock promotion rather than running a business.”
Amazon generated $9.7 billion in free cash flow in 2016 on $136.0 billion in revenue. I’d say he knows how to run a business — wouldn’t you?
Is Amazon a good company? It’s a great company.
AMZN Stock Hits $2,000
Just as there are critics of Jeff Bezos, the businessperson, there are also critics of Amazon, the stock. With calculators drawn, the internet is full of educated investment theses why AMZN stock is incredibly overbought.
Ultimately, these prognosticators may end up being right. However, like the critics of Bezos, the opposite is equally possible given its performance over the last 12 years.
In November, I said Amazon would hit $1,000 in 2017. Up 26% year-to-date through May 17, AMZN stock is just $45 away. Unless the markets completely collapse in the second half of the year, Amazon will not only finish 2017 in quadruple digits; it will push onward to $2,000.
No, I haven’t lost my mind.
Bottom Line on Amazon Stock
There’s no chance given the political climate right now and a bull market that’s very long in the tooth for Amazon to do this in 2017, or even 2018, for that matter.
However, I don’t believe it’s unreasonable to expect this to happen by the end of 2021, despite the so-called disconnect between Amazon.com’s share price and Amazon.com’s business.
Just as I said in my article last November, if anyone can do it, Amazon can.
As of this writing, Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.